How I stopped worrying and learned to love the Polls
I am trying very hard at the moment not to be optimistic about the election. As I've mentioned previously, I'm convinced that if I get my hopes up they'll inevitably be crushed like a bug.
But I've been thinking a little about this approach and while the lid is not yet off, I think those of us who have suffered under John Howard for the past 11 years have every right to enjoy ourselves at the moment.
Look at it this way. If one stays pessimistic about the whole thing, convinced a disaster is on the horizon and the Libs win, well - it's not really going to make us feel any better about things. If it happens, it will be a disaster whether we prepared in advance or not.
On the other hand, things have been going so delightfully of late (Exhibit A: Tony Abbott's meltdown yesterday), that I think we should just enjoy the ride.
It's a bit like jumping out of a plane - once you're out you may as well enjoy yourself because either your parachute will open (in which case you're home and hosed), or it won't (in which case you're entirely screwed) and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it. So get into it kids!
Why so perky you may ask?
Well, there's just been a few things of late that have made me feel better about the way the election is heading, mainly to do with the wonderful Possum. Considering for a moment that today is the first of November and that before the month is out, the election will have come and gone, this post is enormously encouraging. A graphic representation of it can be found here on Antony Green's election calculator.
On top of that, a Possum comment from earlier in the week sent me scurrying to Wikipedia. He said that if Labor can score a primary vote of 46% they cannot lose. It was then pointed out that since Kevin Rudd came to lead the party, the ALP primary, despite the various fluctuations in the polls, has not dropped below 46%. Even the latest Newspoll that the hyenas at The Oz leapt upon has the ALP primary at 48% - business as usual (as Possum would say).
To put that into context have a look at some historical figures. These are the final primary votes for the last four elections (remembering that in 1998 Labor actually had over 50% of the vote and still lost):
2004
Coalition: 46.36%
ALP: 37.64%
2001
Coalition: 42.69%
ALP: 37.84%
1998
Coalition: 39.18%
ALP: 40.10%
1996
Coalition: 46.9%
ALP: 38.75%
So I'm going to remain content as long as the primary stays up there. Once it drops below 46% I'll start to get worried again...
But I've been thinking a little about this approach and while the lid is not yet off, I think those of us who have suffered under John Howard for the past 11 years have every right to enjoy ourselves at the moment.
Look at it this way. If one stays pessimistic about the whole thing, convinced a disaster is on the horizon and the Libs win, well - it's not really going to make us feel any better about things. If it happens, it will be a disaster whether we prepared in advance or not.
On the other hand, things have been going so delightfully of late (Exhibit A: Tony Abbott's meltdown yesterday), that I think we should just enjoy the ride.
It's a bit like jumping out of a plane - once you're out you may as well enjoy yourself because either your parachute will open (in which case you're home and hosed), or it won't (in which case you're entirely screwed) and there's absolutely nothing you can do about it. So get into it kids!
Why so perky you may ask?
Well, there's just been a few things of late that have made me feel better about the way the election is heading, mainly to do with the wonderful Possum. Considering for a moment that today is the first of November and that before the month is out, the election will have come and gone, this post is enormously encouraging. A graphic representation of it can be found here on Antony Green's election calculator.
On top of that, a Possum comment from earlier in the week sent me scurrying to Wikipedia. He said that if Labor can score a primary vote of 46% they cannot lose. It was then pointed out that since Kevin Rudd came to lead the party, the ALP primary, despite the various fluctuations in the polls, has not dropped below 46%. Even the latest Newspoll that the hyenas at The Oz leapt upon has the ALP primary at 48% - business as usual (as Possum would say).
To put that into context have a look at some historical figures. These are the final primary votes for the last four elections (remembering that in 1998 Labor actually had over 50% of the vote and still lost):
2004
Coalition: 46.36%
ALP: 37.64%
2001
Coalition: 42.69%
ALP: 37.84%
1998
Coalition: 39.18%
ALP: 40.10%
1996
Coalition: 46.9%
ALP: 38.75%
So I'm going to remain content as long as the primary stays up there. Once it drops below 46% I'll start to get worried again...
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